Venezuela’selite has mobilized to push out President Hugo Chávez, inspired by the Decemberouster of Argentina’s Fernando de la Rúa. Fine, but Chávez is the twice-electedpresident of a democratic country and kicking him out will do nothing toovercome Venezuela’s profound problems. Pushing him out would further divide avery unhappy country and undermine its feeble institutions. There is noeffective leader waiting in the wings to take over. As Argentina has shown,weak and indecisive leadership only makes a bad situation much, much worse.
Chávez’s enemies shut down the economy, aided by a rebellion at the national oil company at PDVSA. The middle classes are horrified by his threat to “cubanize” the schools. The rich hate his land reform legislation. The oil companies oppose his new hydrocarbons law. The generals detest his meddling in their affairs. Crime, corruption and poverty are as great a problem as ever. Venezuela has nothing good to show for Chávez’s bombastic speeches and “BolivarianRevolution”. Washington loathes Chávez, a man who has shaken hands with Saddam Hussein and ramped up the price of oil.
Chávez may be an ocean-going disaster but it is naïve to pin all the country’s ills on him. It is remarkable that a country with the largest oil reserves in the western hemisphere should be afflicted with so many problems. A few quick fix policies will not deal with such overwhelming problems. On the other hand, clear, rational policies applied consistently year in year out can pull a country out of poverty. Look at Chile and Mexico, Latin America’s most successful economies. Chile used to depend on copper exports and Mexico was a petro-economy. Both commodities are still important, but no longer dominate the Chilean or Mexican economies. It is true that Chileans and Mexicans are not rich, but they are doing a lot better than any other people in the region.