Interest rates will take up attention this week in Brazil, with a decision on local rates out on August 1st.
The country is about to start a heated electoral campaign, not only at the presidential level but all 27 state governor seats are also up for grabs, two-thirds of the senate as well as all federal and state assembly representatives.
At the June meeting, the monetary policy authority said the Brazilian economy was operating with a “high level of economic slack” but also added that the truckers strike that stopped the country in May made it harder to assess how the economy was faring. So look for the next statement to see if officials have better visibility on the country’s perspectives. The IMF lowered Brazil’s 2018 growth projections to 1.8%, and the weekly Focus bulletin the central bank publishes also shows a meager 1.5% growth projection, when projections on the same report started the year at 2.7%.
Mexico opens the week publishing an indicator that reflects employment in the maquilladora sector in May.
While Nafta negotiations are ongoing, the agreement is still the law of the land, but it may be interesting to see what effects if any the discussions are having on the companies that are the offspring of the agreement in the first place. The previous report showed that in March there was an increase of 0.7% in the number of workers in the sector. More light will be shed on Wednesday when the statistics office brings out the numbers for the manufacturing sector in July, including business confidence level.
Colombia gets inflation numbers this week. Both consumer and producer price indexes will be out on Aug. 3 and 4, and they will likely draw attention as consumer prices inched up in June, although below expectations, and nothing like the 1 million percent projected in its neighbor, Venezuela. That number, while hard to fathom, is probably another indication of continuing pressure for Colombia as more and more Venezuelans give up on their country and cross the border. For Colombia, the IMF says “growth is gaining momentum” as the country is able to reap the benefits of higher oil prices.
Peru will publish its economy’s performance with its economic activity report for June. The report is a monthly comprehensive look at production both in the industrial and commodities sector, price indexes, labor market, fiscal management and financial indicators. Higher commodity prices and monetary stimulus led the International Monetary Fund to project a 2018 growth of 3.7%, and above 4% in 2019.
In Argentina on Tuesday the statistics office shares a “Salary Index” for May, and on Thursday the industrial production and activity in the construction sector in June. The South American country has a slow 0.4% growth projection from the IMF, following a currency crisis and drought that led the country to the fund’s door for a bailout.
